Labour holds Starmer’s old seat, but the Greens leave a warning

One London seat has given Britain’s governing party a reason to breathe easier. It has also given its rivals a number they will keep talking about.

Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, defeating Green Party leader Zack Polanski. Voting took place on October 8, with the result emerging on October 9. The seat had previously been held by former prime minister Keir Starmer.

The numbers behind the victory

Parliament’s official results show Abdi-Wali received 12,292 votes, against Polanski’s 8,928. That gave Labour a majority of 3,364, enough to keep the constituency in the party’s hands.

Labour took 45.2% of the vote. The Greens received 32.8%, a rise of 22.4 percentage points from the previous election. Labour’s share fell by 3.7 points. Turnout was 38.6%.

Those figures explain why both parties can find something to say. Labour won the contest that actually decides who goes to Parliament. The Greens made a substantial advance, even though they did not take the seat.

A vote share measures support among people who cast ballots. It is not the same as the share of every resident who supports a party. That distinction matters especially when most eligible voters did not take part.

A new MP, and a test for two leaders

Abdi-Wali had led Camden Council. She came to Britain as a child refugee from Somalia, a background highlighted in AP’s report on her victory. Her move to Parliament puts a local political figure into a seat with an unusually high national profile.

For Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the result offered a political boost. Reuters reported that Labour had faced pressure from the Greens among younger, left-leaning urban voters. Burnham took over after Starmer was ousted in July; Starmer subsequently resigned his parliamentary seat in September.

Polanski said he would remain Green leader after the defeat. The result therefore leaves both leaders with work ahead: Labour must retain support, while the Greens must turn rising vote shares into more actual seats.

What this result can tell us

There is a temptation to treat every by-election like a trailer for the next general election. That can make good political theatre, but it is a poor shortcut.

This was one constituency, with its own candidates, campaign and turnout. It cannot establish how the whole country would vote. What it does show is a clear local outcome: Labour held on, while a much stronger Green challenge made the contest worth watching.